Intertemporal Rate of Substitution

The ratio of the marginal utility of consumption s periods in the future (the numerator) to the marginal utility of consumption today (the denominator). (Institute 465)

Source: Institute, CFA. 2018 CFA Program Level II Volume 6 Alternative Investments and Portfolio Management. CFA Institute, 07/2017. VitalBook file.

The Mundell–Fleming model

The Mundell–Fleming model describes how changes in monetary and fiscal policy within a country affect interest rates and economic activity, which in turn leads to changes in capital flows and trade and ultimately to changes in the exchange rate. The model focuses only on aggregate demand and assumes there is sufficient slack in the economy to allow increases in output without price level increases.

In this model, expansionary monetary policy affects growth, in part, by reducing interest rates and thereby increasing investment and consumption spending. Given flexible exchange rates and expansionary monetary policy, downward pressure on domestic interest rates will induce capital to flow to higher-yielding markets, putting downward pressure on the domestic currency. The more responsive capital flows are to interest rate differentials, the greater the depreciation of the currency.

Expansionary fiscal policy—either directly through increased spending or indirectly via lower taxes—typically exerts upward pressure on interest rates because larger budget deficits must be financed. With flexible exchange rates and mobile capital, the rising domestic interest rates will attract capital from lower-yielding markets, putting upward pressure on the domestic currency. If capital flows are highly sensitive to interest rate differentials, then the domestic currency will tend to appreciate substantially. If, however, capital flows are immobile and very insensitive to interest rate differentials, the policy-induced increase in aggregate demand will increase imports and worsen the trade balance, creating downward pressure on the currency with no offsetting capital inflows to provide support for the currency.

The specific mix of monetary and fiscal policies in a country can have a profound effect on its exchange rate. Consider first the case of high capital mobility. With floating exchange rates and high capital mobility, a domestic currency will appreciate given a restrictive domestic monetary policy and/or an expansionary fiscal policy. Similarly, a domestic currency will depreciate given an expansionary domestic monetary policy and/or a restrictive fiscal policy. In Exhibit 5, we show that the combination of a restrictive monetary policy and an expansionary fiscal policy is extremely bullish for a currency when capital mobility is high; likewise, the combination of an expansionary monetary policy and a restrictive fiscal policy is bearish for a currency. The effect on the currency of monetary and fiscal policies that are both expansionary or both restrictive is indeterminate under conditions of high capital mobility.

When capital mobility is low, the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on exchange rates will operate primarily through trade flows rather than capital flows. The combination of expansionary monetary and fiscal policy will be bearish for a currency. Earlier we said that expansionary fiscal policy will increase imports and hence the trade deficit, creating downward pressure on the currency. Layering on an expansive monetary policy will further boost spending and imports, worsening the trade balance and exacerbating the downward pressure on the currency.

The combination of restrictive monetary and fiscal policy will be bullish for a currency. This policy mix will tend to reduce imports, leading to an improvement in the trade balance.

The impact of expansionary monetary and restrictive fiscal policies (or restrictive monetary and expansionary fiscal policies) on aggregate demand and the trade balance, and hence on the exchange rate, is indeterminate under conditions of low capital mobility. Exhibit 6 summarizes these results.

Exhibit 5 is more relevant for the G–10 countries because capital mobility tends to be high in developed economies. Exhibit 6 is more relevant for emerging market economies that restrict capital movement.

A classic case in which a dramatic shift in the policy mix caused dramatic changes in exchange rates was that of Germany in 1990–1992. During that period, the German government pursued a highly expansionary fiscal policy to help facilitate German unification. At the same time, the Bundesbank pursued an extraordinarily restrictive monetary policy to combat the inflationary pressures associated with unification. The expansive fiscal/restrictive monetary policy mix drove German interest rates sharply higher, eventually causing the German currency to appreciate.

Balance of Payment

Balance of payments accounts keep track of a country’s payments to and receipts from foreigners. Any transaction resulting in a receipt from foreigners is entered in the balance of payments accounts as a credit. Any transaction resulting in a payment to foreigners is entered as a debit.

Three types of international transaction are recorded in the balance of payments:

1. Transactions that arise from the export or import of goods or services and therefore enter directly into the current account.

For example, when a French consumer imports American blue jeans, for example, the transaction enters the U.S. balance of payments accounts as a credit on the current account.

2. Transactions that arise from the purchase or sale of financial assets. An asset is any one of the forms in which wealth can be held, such as money, stocks, factories, or government debt. The financial account of the balance of payments records all international purchases or sales of financial assets.

For example, when an American company buys a French factory, the transaction enters the U.S. balance of payments as a debit in the financial account. It enters as a debit because the transaction requires a payment from the United States to foreigners. Correspondingly, a U.S. sale of assets to foreigners enters the U.S. financial account as a credit. The difference between a country’s purchases and sales of foreign assets is called its financial account balance, or its net financial flows.

3. Certain other activities resulting in transfers of wealth between countries are recorded in the capital account. These international asset movements—which are generally very small for the United States—differ from those recorded in the financial account. For the most part they result from nonmarket activities or represent the acquisition or disposal of nonproduced, nonfinancial, and possibly intangible assets (such as copyrights and trademarks).

For example, if the U.S. government forgives $1 billion in debt owed to it by the government of Pakistan, U.S. wealth declines by $1 billion and a $1 billion debit is recorded in the U.S. capital account.

You will find the complexities of the balance of payments accounts less confusing if you keep in mind the following simple rule of double-entry bookkeeping: Every international transaction automatically enters the balance of payments twice, once as a credit and once as a debit. This principle of balance of payments accounting holds true because every transaction has two sides: If you buy something from a foreigner, you must pay him in some way, and the foreigner must then somehow spend or store your payment.