引用

Angus Deaton’s understanding of economics

普林斯顿大学经济学教授安格斯·迪顿(Angus Deaton)因为“对消费,贫困和福利的分析”做出的贡献而被授予2015年的诺贝尔经济学奖。在迪顿教授的大学个人主页上,有一篇14页的短篇个人传记,介绍了他的人生经历。其中有这样一小段话,描述了他对经济学的理解:

I understood that economics was about three things: theory that specified mechanisms and stories about how the world worked, and how things might be linked together; evidence that could be interpreted in terms of the theory, or that seemed to contradict it, or was just puzzling; and writing (whose importance is much understated in economics) that could explain mechanisms in a way that made them compelling, or that could draw out the lessons that were learned from the combination of theory and evidence.

专业投资者 vs. 散户

凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)在他的著作《就业、利息和货币通论》中讨论了专业投资者和普通散户的区别。他写道:

It might have been supposed that competition between expert professionals, possessing judgment and knowledge beyond that of the average private investor, would correct the vagaries of the ignorant individual left to himself. It happens, however, that the energies and skill of the professional investor and speculator are mainly occupied otherwise. For most of these persons are, in fact, largely concerned, not with making superior long-term forecasts of probable yield of an investment over its whole life, but with foreseeing changes in the conventional basis of valuation of a short time ahead of the general public. They are concerned, not with what an investment is really worth to a man who buys it “for keeps,” but with what the market will value it at, under the influence of mass psychology, three months or a year hence. Moreover, his behavior is not the outcome of a wrong-headed propensity. For it is not sensible to pay 25 for an investment of which you believe the prospective yield to justify a value of 30, if you also believe that the market will value it at 20 three months hence.

Thus the professional investor is forced to concern himself with the anticipation of impending changes, in the news or in the atmosphere, of the kind by which experience shows that the mass psychology of the market is most influenced. This is the inevitable result of investment markets organized with a view to so-called “liquidity”. Of the maxims of orthodox finance none, surely, is more anti-social than the fetish of liquidity, the doctrine that it is a positive virtue on the part of investment institutions to concentrate their resources upon the holding of “liquid” securities. It forgets that there is no such thing as liquidity of investment for the community as a whole. The social object of skilled investment should be to defeat the dark forces of time and ignorance which envelop our future. The actual, private object of the most skilled investment to-day is “to beat the gun”, as the Americans so well express it, to outwit the crowd, and to pass the bad, or depreciating, half-crown to the other fellow.

This battle of wits to anticipate the basis of conventional valuation a few months hence, rather than the prospective yield of an investment over a long term of years, does not even require gulls amongst the public to feed the maws of the professional; — it can be played by professionals amongst themselves. Nor is it necessary that anyone should keep his simple faith in the conventional basis of valuation having any genuine long-term validity. For it is, so to speak, a game of Snap, of Old Maid, of Musical Chairs — a pastime in which he is victor who says Snap neither too soon nor too late, who passes the Old Maid to his neighbor before the game is over, who secures a chair for himself when the music stops. These games can be played with zest and enjoyment, though all the players know that it is the Old Maid which is circulating, or that when the music stops some of the players will find themselves unseated.

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Gerald Loeb on security values

关于证券的价值,Gerald Loeb在《The Battle for Investment Survival》中写道:

There is no such thing as a final answer to security values. A dozen experts will arrive at 12 different conclusions. It often happens that a few moments later each would alter his verdict if given a chance to reconsider because of a changed condition. Market values are fixed only in part by balance sheets and income statements; much more by the hopes and fears of humanity; by greed, ambition, acts of God, invention, financial stress and strain, weather, discovery, fashion and numberless other causes impossible to be listed without omission.

via: The Money Game

Louise Yamada on oversold in a bear market

技术分析师Louise Yamada对股票市场的未来走势并不是很乐观。她自己发明的一个技术分析指标(比较上涨和下跌股票的交易量)在过去的三个月中,很长时间处于超卖(oversold)的区域。

关于这点,她说:

I think it’s important to understand that when you’re in a bull market, an oversold situation can be a very temporary registration and people tend to say ‘buy the dip’. But when you start going into a weakening market, a bear market for instance, the oversold can remain oversold and it is the empirical evidence of selling pressure. So all of these rallies that we’ve had since June when this indicator went oversold have been evidence with selling into strength. So people were taking their money out on the rallies that we’ve seen over the past three months.

via: Bloomberg

彼得·伯恩斯坦论股票投资的目标

彼得·伯恩斯坦(Peter L. Bernstein)2008年在《Economist on Wall Street》一书新版开头的介绍中写道:

The objective of equity investing is survival. In the patois of today’s professional investors, the objective of survival is just a straightforward way of saying that risk management is the secret of success. We have no control over what kinds of returns we will earn; we can only estimate, figure, and then hope. Risk is the key variable under our control.

Making a killing is a hope, not a strategy. The same goes for trying to beat the market. Taking risks so high that all can be lost is a strategy, but it is not the strategy I would choose.

保罗·都铎·琼斯论200日均线

亿万富翁交易员保罗·都铎·琼斯(Paul Tudor Jones II) 在接受励志演说家托尼·罗宾斯采访时讨论200日均线

One principle for sure would be: get out of anything that falls below the 200-day moving average.

I teach an undergrad class at the University of Virginia, and I tell my students, “I’m going to save you from going to business school. Here, you’re getting a $100k class, and I’m going to give it to you in two thoughts, okay? You don’t need to go to business school; you’ve only got to remember two things.”

The first is, you always want to be with whatever the predominant trend is. My metric for everything I look at is the 200-day moving average of closing prices. I’ve seen too many things go to zero, stocks and commodities. The whole trick in investing is: “How do I keep from losing everything?” If you use the 200-day moving average rule, then you get out. You play defense, and you get out.

via: MONEY Master the Game

Bridgewater on the China’s Stock Market

桥水基金(Bridgewater Associates)在给客户的信中写道:

中国市场的价格走势是由毫无经验的投机者主导的新兴股票市场的典型特征。新参与者们现在发现在这样的市场中赚钱是困难的。(The Chinese market’s price action is typical for a newly developing equity market that is dominated by unsophisticated speculators. New participants are now discovering that making money in the markets is difficult.)

更新:桥水发出更为细节的声明,说明自己的中国经济的看法。via: WSJ