分类目录归档:市场

1929至2008

导致美国1929年股灾的一个重要原因是因为投机者过度使用杠杆。这次股灾导致了美国经济大萧条。导致2008年金融危机的一个重要原因是因为过度使用资产抵押债券(asset-back securities)。美国经济现在还未能完全从此次金融危机中恢复。(央行利率现在仍然被维持在接近0%。)

从杠杆到ABS,华尔街用了近80年。而中国金融界似乎想在几年之内完成这一“飞跃”。

根据彭博通讯社报道

China’s first asset-backed security tied to stock margin loans is raising concern that authorities are fueling new risks as they attempt to reverse an equities slump.

Guotai Junan Securities Co., the nation’s second-biggest listed brokerage, plans to sell 500 million yuan ($80.5 million) of bonds Friday backed by margin facilities it extended to stock investors, according to a company statement. The offering comes after a stock rout last month that prompted regulators to allow brokerages to securitize margin loans.

China is increasingly opening to ABS, having reversed course in 2012 to allow sales regulators had banned in 2009 after the products helped spark the global financial crisis. Investor concern has mounted that unintended risks could spread after unprecedented state intervention to help staunch the stock slide that wiped out as much as $4 trillion.

Its offering consists of a primary tranche, rated AAA, of 475 million yuan, and a subordinated tranche of 25 million yuan, according to the statement.

“We’re going to see more brokerages issue similar ABS products” after the China Securities Regulatory Commission allowed margin financing to be used as collateral, Chen at DBS Vickers said.

疯狂并购

Centerview Partners创始人Blair Effron在接受CNBC采访时讨论说:

You have to step back and look at valuations … The average valuation in the M&A market today is 13 times EBITDA. As a reminder, in 2012 it was 10 times. In fact, the last time we were at 13 times was 2007 … We’ll have YTD 40 or so transactions over $10 billion … The last time we saw that was 2007.

《华尔街日报》今天也在报道一笔306亿美金收购时写道:

Buyers have gone public with $383 billion in unsolicited takeover offers this year, according to Dealogic, on track to approach 2007’s record of $818 billion. One in five dollars committed to U.S. takeovers this year has been uninvited, slightly ahead of last year and double the rate two years ago.

为什么会有如此多的并购?

Effective Federal Funds Rate 2008-01 to 2015-06

缺乏宽度的市场

纳斯达克年初至今上涨了7.5%,总市值增长6640亿美金。这其中超过一半的市值增长是亚马逊,谷歌,苹果,Facebook,Netflix和Gilead Science创造的。

S&P500指数今年市值增长近2000亿。亚马逊,谷歌,苹果,Facebook,Gilead和迪士尼这六家公司的市值增长就超过了这个数字。

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