专业投资者 vs. 散户

凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)在他的著作《就业、利息和货币通论》中讨论了专业投资者和普通散户的区别。他写道:

It might have been supposed that competition between expert professionals, possessing judgment and knowledge beyond that of the average private investor, would correct the vagaries of the ignorant individual left to himself. It happens, however, that the energies and skill of the professional investor and speculator are mainly occupied otherwise. For most of these persons are, in fact, largely concerned, not with making superior long-term forecasts of probable yield of an investment over its whole life, but with foreseeing changes in the conventional basis of valuation of a short time ahead of the general public. They are concerned, not with what an investment is really worth to a man who buys it “for keeps,” but with what the market will value it at, under the influence of mass psychology, three months or a year hence. Moreover, his behavior is not the outcome of a wrong-headed propensity. For it is not sensible to pay 25 for an investment of which you believe the prospective yield to justify a value of 30, if you also believe that the market will value it at 20 three months hence.

Thus the professional investor is forced to concern himself with the anticipation of impending changes, in the news or in the atmosphere, of the kind by which experience shows that the mass psychology of the market is most influenced. This is the inevitable result of investment markets organized with a view to so-called “liquidity”. Of the maxims of orthodox finance none, surely, is more anti-social than the fetish of liquidity, the doctrine that it is a positive virtue on the part of investment institutions to concentrate their resources upon the holding of “liquid” securities. It forgets that there is no such thing as liquidity of investment for the community as a whole. The social object of skilled investment should be to defeat the dark forces of time and ignorance which envelop our future. The actual, private object of the most skilled investment to-day is “to beat the gun”, as the Americans so well express it, to outwit the crowd, and to pass the bad, or depreciating, half-crown to the other fellow.

This battle of wits to anticipate the basis of conventional valuation a few months hence, rather than the prospective yield of an investment over a long term of years, does not even require gulls amongst the public to feed the maws of the professional; — it can be played by professionals amongst themselves. Nor is it necessary that anyone should keep his simple faith in the conventional basis of valuation having any genuine long-term validity. For it is, so to speak, a game of Snap, of Old Maid, of Musical Chairs — a pastime in which he is victor who says Snap neither too soon nor too late, who passes the Old Maid to his neighbor before the game is over, who secures a chair for himself when the music stops. These games can be played with zest and enjoyment, though all the players know that it is the Old Maid which is circulating, or that when the music stops some of the players will find themselves unseated.

以下是这段话的中文翻译([英]约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯著,高鸿业重译《就业、利息和货币通论》(汉译世界学术名著丛书)商务印书馆,1999。):

也许有人以为:有些人以投资为业,他们是专家,他们所有的知识与判断能力超出一般私人投资者以上;若听凭无知无识者自己去从事,固然可使市场变化多端,但专家之间互相竞争,也许可以矫正这种趋势。然而事实上则不然。这批职业投资者与投机者之精力与才干,大都用在别一方面。事实上这批人最关切者,不在比常人高出一筹,预测某一投资品在其整个寿命中所产之收益如何,而在比一般群众稍为早一些,预测决定市价之成规本身会有什么改变。换句话说,他们并不关心:设有人购一投资,不再割让,则该投资对此人值几何;他们所关心者,乃是3月或1年以后,在群众心理支配之下,市场对此投资之估价为何。他们所以有这种行为,并不是因为他们性情怪僻。投资市场之组织方式既如上述,则此乃不可避免之结果。设有一投资,你相信若就其未来收益而论,则值30元,但你也相信,3月以后,此投资在市场上只值20元,如果你现在出25元购买,实为不智之举。

根据以往经验,有几类因素,例如某种消息或某种空气,最足影响群众心理。职业投资者乃不能不密切注意,预测在最近将来,这类因素会有何种改变。设投资市场之设,以“流动”为目的,则此乃不可避免之结果。在所有正统派理财原则之中,以“流动性”崇拜最于社会不利。其说以为从事投资之机关,应以其资源集中于持有热股。可是这个学说忘了,就社会全体而论,投资不能有流动性。从社会观点看,要使得投资高明,只有增加我们对于未来之了解;但从私人观点,所谓最高明的投资,乃是先发制人,智夺群众,把坏东西让给别人。

斗智之对象,不在预测投资在未来好几年中之收益,而在预测几个月以后,由因循成规所得市价有何变化。且此种斗智战,也不须外行参加以供职业投资者鱼肉,职业投资者相互之间就可以玩起来。参加者也不必真相信,从长时期看,因循成规有任何合理根据。从事职业投资,好象是玩“叫停”、“递物”、“占位”等游戏,是一种消遣,谁能不先不后说出“停”字,谁能在游戏终了以前,把东西递给邻座,谁能在音乐终了时,占到一个座位,谁就是胜利者。这类游戏,可以玩得津津有味,虽然每个参加者都知道,东西总在传来传去,音乐终了时,总有若干人占不到座位。

发表评论

电子邮件地址不会被公开。 必填项已用*标注