熊市中股票能跌多少?

摩根大通在给客户准备的资料中,展示了在过去10个熊市中标普500指数从最高点下跌的比例和这些熊市的一些特征:

S&P 500 Composite Declines from all-time highs

在同一份资料中,摩根大通还提到:

Stocks are near record highs

  • More than six years into a bull market, the S&P 500 has soared more than 200%, driving the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio up above its long-term historical average.
  • But while stocks are no longer cheap, they are not yet very expensive.
  • For investors who may have seen their equity allocation swell beyond their strategic allocation, a conversation about rebalancing with their financial advisors may be in order.

Bear markets don’t just happen…external factors cause them

  • Given the market’s ascent to new highs, many investors wonder if, in fact, these levels also represent a new peak.
  • History shows that certain conditions—including recessions, aggressive rate hikes and oil spikes—have all been associated with bear markets. Today, it is hard to see any of these issues present.
  • Importantly, valuation has been a poor predictor of bear markets. Investors should remain well balanced in case of a pullback, but a large bear market seems to lack an immediate cause.

Corporations are still shareholder friendly

  • An improving economy and slowly growing profits should remain supportive of the equity market, particularly if energy prices and the U.S. dollar stabilize this year.
  • Corporate balance sheets, with large cash piles and reduced debt loads, also remain healthy.
  • This has manifested in a wave of share buybacks, mergers and acquisition activity and increased dividend payouts—all of which are supportive of share values.

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